Risk Analysis

The way Governments deal with risk has developed rapidly since the 1960s.

The zero risk approach was exposed as impractical and elements of various disciplines came together to form risk analysis.

This is a formalised approach for the identification, assessment, management and communication of risk. For example, it has been used for more than 20 years in financial management and engineering.

Risk analysis is still evolving, but its use is spreading to other safety-related areas. It is now an accepted basis for establishing international trading standards and for trade negotiations involving dispute, where safety aspects of animal and plant products are concerned.

New Zealand is one of the countries leading the way in establishing risk analysis procedures internationally.

View the Biosecurity New Zealand policy statement on conducting Import Risk Analyses and their application in developing Import Health Standards.

View the Biosecurity New Zealand risk analysis procedures (1638 Kb) for the development of import health standards for inanimate, animal and plant products.

View recent amendments to the risk analysis procedures - for interested stakeholders - Revisions to Risk Analysis Procedures - 10 October 2007 (24 Kb)

Animals & Animal Products
Avian	Passerine hatching eggs from the European Union Import Risk Analysis (February 2006): (1070 Kb) This risk analysis examines the biosecurity risks posed by the importation of hatching eggs of birds in the taxonomic order Passeriformes from the European Union into New Zealand.
	Avian paramyxovirus type 1 in hens' hatching eggs Import Risk Analysis (March 2001): (95 Kb) An analysis of the risk posed by exotic strains of avian paramyxovirus type 1 (causative agent of Newcastle disease) in imported hatching eggs of hens (Gallus gallus).
Livestock	Seropositive animals Import Risk Analysis (July 1999): (400 Kb) Examines the biosecurity risks posed by importing live cattle, sheep, goats, horses and pigs, should they be found seropositive during post-arrival quarantine, having already tested negative pre-export.
Genetic Material	Honey Bee Genetic Material Import Risk Analysis (June 2003): (546 Kb) An analysis of the risks associated with importing honey bee (Apis mellifera) genetic material – queens, queen cells, eggs and semen. Primarily to find acceptable conditions under which genes for varroa tolerance can be introduced into New Zealand. Review of Submissions (August 2003) (980 Kb)
	Horses and horse semen Risk analysis (January 2000) (543 Kb): Examines the disease risks associated with importing live horses and horse semen into New Zealand. Review of submissions (January 2000) (136 Kb)
	Disease Risk Assessment: The use in New Zealand of imported semen derived from an Argali Sheep Import Risk Analysis (September 2001) (2064 Kb): Assessment of the risks associated with the use in New Zealand of semen from an Argali (Ovis ammon polii). The risks attached to the inoculation into goats of homogenised mesenteric lymph node removed surgically from the ram are also assessed. Review of Submissions (578 Kb)
	Sheep and Goat Genetic Material Risk analysis (October 2005) (914 Kb): This risk analysis considers the risk of introduction of disease-causing organisms through the importation of sheep and goat genetic material (semen or embryos). Review of submissions (May 2006) (586 Kb)
Domestic Mammals	Babesia gibsoni in Dogs and Dog Semen Risk Analysis (February 2003): (113 Kb) A qualitative analysis of the biosecurity risks posed by Babesia gibsoni in dogs and their semen imported into New Zealand. B. gibsoni is a tick-transmitted blood borne parasite of wild and domestic dogs. Review of Submissions (October 2003) (1298 Kb)
Zoo Animals	Antelopes Risk analysis (August 2000) (302 Kb): An analysis of the disease risks of introducing live antelope into New Zealand. Review of submissions (August 2000) (21 Kb)
	Crocodilia and eggs of Crocodilia Import Risk Analysis (November 2007) (169 Kb): An analysis of the biosecurity risks associated with the importation of live animals and hatching eggs of species within the Order Crocodilia (Class Reptilia) from Australia.
Fish	Juvenile yellowtail kingfish from Spencer Gulf Aquaculture, South Australia Import Risk Analysis (Feb 2003) (169 Kb): An analysis following a to import cultured juvenile (1 - 3g) kingfish (Seriola lalandi) from Spencer Gulf Aquaculture hatchery, Port Augusta, South Australia, to a proposed aquaculture facility in Nelson, New Zealand. Review of Submissions (Sep 2004) (1781 Kb)
Crustacean	Freshwater prawns (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) from Hawaii Import Risk Analysis (March 2006): analysis examines the biosecurity risks associated with the importation of live freshwater prawns (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) into New Zealand. A preliminary hazard list was compiled, comprising 76 viral, bacterial, fungal, protozoan, metazoan and other disease agents. The hazard identification concluded that six of these diseases should be considered potential hazards in the commodity: White Spot Disease, White Tail Disease, Lactococcosis, Rickettsial disease, Aphanomyces sp. infection and the nematode Angiostrongylus cantonensis.... Review of Submissions (524 Kb) (August 2006)
Bees	Honey Bee Products Risk analysis (Dec 2004) (2002 Kb): A re-written risk analysis on honey bee hive products. This followed concerns raised after the initial risk analysis of July 2002. The more recent analysis uses the original as a template but is in line with current procedures and processes. Review of Submissions (Nov 2005) (4722 Kb)
	Honey Bee Hive Products And Used Beekeeping Equipment Risk analysis (July 2002) (182 Kb): Aims to identify and appropriately manage the disease risks posed by importing honey bee commodities. Review of submissions (June 2003) (617 Kb)
Fibre and Skins	Macropod fibre and skins from Australia Risk analysis (May 1999): (30 Kb) An assessment for importing kangaroo fibre and commercial shipments of kangaroo skins. It examines the risks to animal and human health posed by such imports, and suggests ways to manage those risks to an acceptable level.
	Unprocessed fibre of sheep and goats Risk analysis (Nov 1998) (486 Kb): A non-quantitative analysis of the biosecurity risks posed by the importation of unprocessed fibre of sheep and goats into New Zealand. Review of submissions (Aug 1999) (26 Kb)
	Importation of Weeds Species by Live Animals and Unprocessed Fibre of Sheep and Goats Risk analysis (May 1999) (59 Kb): A non-quantitative analysis of the biosecurity risks posed by importing live animals and fibre of sheep and goats into New Zealand.
	Hides and skins from specified animals Risk analysis (April 2008) (1153 Kb): An analysis of the biosecurity risks posed by imported hides and skins of ruminants, horses, pigs, lamoids and ratites for processing into leather.
Edible Products	Belovo Egg Powders Risk analysis (April 2003) (93 Kb): A qualitative analysis of the biosecurity risks posed by three egg powders manufactured by a specific European firm working according to GMP rules on hygiene and health problems affecting the production and the placing on the market of egg products. Review of submissions (September 2003) (150 Kb)
	Chicken Meat and Chicken Meat Products; Bernard Matthews Foods Limited Turkey Meat Preparations from the United Kingdom Risk analysis (March 1999) (781 Kb): Examines the epidemiology and physical characteristics of various pathogens considered important to avian health in New Zealand. The analysis also examines the potential for certain pathogens of human health significance to be introduced into local poultry flocks. Review of submissions (Sept 1999) (105 Kb)
	Revised Quantitative Risk Assessments on Chicken Meat from the United States; Reassessment of Heat Treatment for Inactivation of Newcastle Disease Virus in Chicken Meat Risk analysis (April 2000) (494 Kb): Follows the original import risk analysis (March 1999) and review of submissions (September 1999) but presents additional analyses on the risk of introducing the infectious bursal disease virus, and models the risk of introducing the Newcastle disease virus in chicken meat of US origin. Review of submissions (November 2000) (335 Kb)
	Camel (Camelus dromedarius) Meat for Human Consumption from Australia. Risk analysis (April 2003): (55 Kb) Analysis the risks of importing processed camel meat from Australia.
	Salmonids for human consumption Risk analysis (Sept 1997) (637 Kb): A risk analysis as a result of a USA request for New Zealand to consider market access for wild Pacific salmon from the USA. The risk analysis is in a more generic form.
	Australian salmonids for human consumption Supplementary risk analysis (Sept 1999) (76 Kb): Analysis of importing eviscerated salmonids from Australia, produced and processed under the already approved regulatory systems which currently provide for market access into New Zealand for headed, gilled and gutted salmonids.
	Meat and Meat Products Risk analysis (1991): (371 Kb) A technical assessment of the animal health risks posed of different meat products from different sources, to allow as wide a range of products as possible access to the New Zealand market without jeopardising the country's animal health status.
	Cooked Duck Meat From Australia Risk analysis (2006): (305 Kb) This document is a qualitative analysis of the risks posed by the importation into New Zealand of six cooked duck meat products (specified in appendix 2) produced by the Australian company Luv-A-Duck Pty Ltd. Review of Submissions (1284 Kb) 11 May 2007
	Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus in pig meat Import Risk Analysis (June 2006) (625 Kb) Combined Appendices (including Review of Submissions) (1207 Kb) Review of Submissions (June 2007) (822 Kb)
	Catfish meat from Vietnam for human consumption Import Risk Analysis (March 2008) (336 Kb) This risk analysis examined the biosecurity risks associated with the importation of frozen, skinless and boneless fillet meat of pangasid catfish (Pangasius spp.) from Vietnam.
Plants & Plant Products
	Miscanthus tissue cultures from Great Britain and the USA Risk analysis (Dec 2007) (525 Kb) An analysis of the biosecurity risks associated with importing into New Zealand tissue cultures of Miscanthus plants from Great Britain and the USA.
	Wollemia nobilis (Wollemi pine) Nursery Stock from Australia Risk analysis (14 March 2008) (1388 Kb) An analysis of the biosecurity risks associated with importing into New Zealand nursery stock of Wollemia nobilis (Wollemi pine) from Australia Summary of submissions (1061 Kb)
Inanimates
	Vehicles and Machinery Risk analysis (2007) (1519 Kb) This risk analysis examines the biosecurity risks posed by the importation of new and used vehicles and machinery into New Zealand, and includes recommendations to be considered for managing these risks. Review of Submissions (1526 Kb) 29 June 2007
General Risk Analysis Documents
	Red Imported Fire Ant Release Assessment (August 2002) (1207 Kb) Red imported fire ant (RIFA) (Solenopsis invicta) is a native ant species of Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. It has also established in Queensland, Australia. A single nest was discovered at Auckland International Airport, New Zealand in February 2001. The routes of entry of the Australian and the New Zealand incursions are unknown. Red Imported Fire Ant
	Crazy Ants (Paratrechina longicornis) Crazy Ants Risk Assessment (1104 Kb) Black crazy ant
	Ghost Ants (Tapinoma melanocephalum) Ghost Ants Risk Assessment (1124 Kb) Ghost ant
	Little Fire Ants (Wasmannia auropunctata) Little Fire Ants Risk Assessment (1049 Kb) Little fire ant
	Singapore Ants (Monomorium destructor) Singapore Ants Risk Assessment (1005 Kb) Singapore ant
	Tropical Fire Ants (Solenopsis geminata) Tropical Fire Ants Risk Assessment (1301 Kb) Tropical fire ant
	Yellow Crazy Ants (Anololepis gracilipes) Yellow Crazy Ants Risk Assessment (1216 Kb) Yellow crazy ant
	Lasius neglectus Lasius neglectus Risk Assessment (993 Kb)
	Black Imported Fire Ant (Solenopsis richteri) Black Imported Fire Ant Risk Assessment (1071 Kb)
	The Impact of New Epidemiological Information on a Risk Analysis for the Introduction of Avian Influenza in Import Poultry Meat. Conference Paper (April 2002): (44 Kb) Presents the New Zealand experience assessing the risk of avian influenza viruses in imported chicken meat, and considers how the assessment of risk has changed in recent years as a result of the advances in understanding of the disease.
	Determination of the acceptable risk of introduction of FMD virus in passenger luggage following the UK outbreak in 2001. Conference Paper (Julyl 2002): (31 Kb) Examines the process leading to border measures introduced in New Zealand within weeks of the February 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the UK, and compares it to the decision-making process implied under the WTO framework
	Risk of introduction of FMD virus to New Zealand via trade in live animals, animal products and passenger luggage. FMD risk analysis (April 2002): (89 Kb) Reviews the pathogenesis, virus survival, routes of infection and methods of spread of FMD virus, and presents a summary of the major risks of introduction and dissemination of FMD virus and the risk-management measures in place in this country. The article was published in the April 2002 issue of the New Zealand Veterinary Journal  under the following title:  Pharo HJ (2002). Foot-and-mouth disease: an assessment of the risks facing New Zealand. New Zealand Veterinary Journal 50(2), 46-55
	Process for conducting import risk analyses for animals and animal products Process Paper (47 Kb) published in Biosecurity issue 21 (August 2000): An article describing the process for ensuring requirements for consultation and rigour are met where Import Risk Analyses for animals is carried out by consultants
Pest Risk Analysis
	Pinewood Nematode (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) Pest Risk Analysis (26 October 2004) (4957 Kb): Investigates a number of factors associated with the phytosanitary risk of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus -pinewood nematode (PWN) and other pathogenic Bursaphelenchus spp to New Zealand.
	Ants on Sawn Timber Imported from the South Pacific Region Pest Risk Analysis (16 April 2003) (964 Kb): Investigates the risks of importing unwanted species of ants with commercial consignments of sawn timber exported to New Zealand from the south Pacific region (excluding Australia), the likelihood of those imported ants establishing in New Zealand, the effectiveness of the biosecurity measures and border clearance systems currently in place and mitigating those risks, and any additional biosecurity measures that may be required to reduce the biosecurity risk to an acceptable level.